世界气象组织：全球变暖或将在未来五年内超过1.5度临界点

世界气象组织的年度报告称，在温室污染和厄尔尼诺现象的共同作用下，地球可能在未来五年内首次突破较工业化前水平升高1.5摄氏度的临界点。

Photo/Pexels

The world is now likely to breach a key climate threshold for the first time within the next five years, according to the World Meteorological Organization, due to a combination of heat-trapping pollution and a looming El Niño.

世界气象组织称，在温室污染和即将发生的厄尔尼诺现象的共同作用下，地球可能在未来五年内首次突破一个关键的气候临界点。

Global temperatures have soared in recent years as the world continues to burn planet-warming fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas. And that trend shows no sign of slowing. In its annual climate update, the WMO said that between 2023 and 2027, there is now a 66% chance that the planet’s temperature will climb above 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming above pre-industrial levels for at least one year.

由于世界继续燃烧煤炭、石油和天然气等化石燃料，全球气温在近年来大幅上升。而且这一趋势没有变缓的迹象。世界气象组织在其最新的年度气候报告中指出，2023年至2027年间至少有一年有66%的几率全球气温会比工业化前水平升高1.5摄氏度。

As temperatures surge, there is also a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years – and the five-year period as a whole – will be the warmest on record for the planet, the WMO reported.

世界气象组织报告称，随着气温上升，未来五年中至少有一年有98%的几率会成为地球史上最热的年份，未来五年也会成为有史以来最热的五年。

Breaching the 1.5-degree threshold may only be temporary, the WMO said, but it would be the clearest signal yet of how quickly climate change is accelerating – hastening sea level rise, more extreme weather and the demise of vital ecosystems.

世界气象组织称，打破1.5度临界点可能只是暂时的，但这是气候变化加速最明确的信号，气候变化会加速海平面上升，导致更多极端天气和重要生态系统的瓦解。

Countries pledged in the Paris Climate agreement to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees – and preferably to 1.5 degrees – compared to pre-industrial temperatures. Scientists consider 1.5 degrees of warming as a key tipping point, beyond which the chances of extreme flooding, drought, wildfires and food shortages could increase dramatically.

世界各国曾在《巴黎协定》中承诺，将全球变暖限制在比工业化前水平升高2摄氏度以内，最好是限制在1.5摄氏度以内。科学家认为1.5度是一个关键临界点，超过1.5度后特大洪灾、干旱、森林火灾和食物短缺的发生几率都会大增。

The temperature increases are fueled by the rise of planet-heating pollution from burning fossil fuels, as well as the predicted arrival of El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon with a global heating effect.

全球气温上升源于燃烧化石燃料导致的温室污染以及预计会出现的厄尔尼诺现象，这种自然气候现象会导致全球变暖。

The current hottest year on record is 2016, which followed a very strong El Niño event. El Niño tends to ramp up the temperatures the year after it develops, which could put 2024 on track to be the hottest year on record.

当前史上最热年份是2016年，就是伴随强厄尔尼诺现象而来的。厄尔尼诺现象会推高来年的气温，这可能会使2024年成为有史以来最热的年份。

Scientists have long warned that the world needs to stay within 1.5 degrees of warming to avoid catastrophic and potentially irreversible changes.

长久以来科学家一直警告称，全球变暖必须控制在1.5度以内，以避免灾难性和潜在不可逆转的变化。

Warming above this point increases the risk of triggering major tipping points, including the death of coral reefs and the melting of polar ice sheets, which will add to sea level rise, devastating coastal communities.

全球变暖超过1.5度会增加多个重要临界点被触发的风险，包括珊瑚礁死亡和极地冰原融化，这会令海平面升高，给海岸居民带来毁灭性后果。

In the US alone, 13 million people could be forced to relocate because of sea level rise by the end of the century. For many low-lying Pacific island nations, warming over 1.5 degrees is a threat to their survival.

仅是在美国，就有1300万人口可能会因为本世纪末前海平面上升而被迫搬迁。对许多地势低的太平洋岛国的居民而言，全球变暖超过1.5度将威胁到他们的生存。

Temperature rises also increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events including droughts, storms, wildfires and heatwaves.

气温升高还会增加包括干旱、暴风雨、森林火灾和热浪在内的极端天气的频率和强度。

重点词汇

for the first time 第一次

five years 五年

according to 根据 ; 据 ; 按 ; 依照 ; 按照

World Meteorological organization 世界气象组织

a combination of 组合 ; 结合

in recent years 近年来 ; 最近几年中 ; 晚近

fossil fuels 化石燃料 ; fossil fuel的复数

oil and gas 油气 ; 石油及天然气 ; 石油和天然气 ; 石油天然气 ; 油和天然气